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- import pandas as pd
- import numpy as np
- from tpot import TPOTClassifier
- from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
- benchmark = pd.read_pickle('us_pct.pickle') # us overall housing price index percentage change
- HPI = pd.read_pickle('HPI_complete.pickle') # all of the state data, thirty year mortgage, unemployment rate, GDP, SP500
- HPI = HPI.join(benchmark['United States'])
- # all in percentage change since the start of the data (1975-01-01)
- HPI.dropna(inplace=True)
- housing_pct = HPI.pct_change()
- housing_pct.replace([np.inf, -np.inf], np.nan, inplace=True)
- housing_pct['US_HPI_future'] = housing_pct['United States'].shift(-1)
- housing_pct.dropna(inplace=True)
- def create_labels(cur_hpi, fut_hpi):
- if fut_hpi > cur_hpi:
- return 1
- else:
- return 0
- housing_pct['label'] = list(map(create_labels, housing_pct['United States'], housing_pct['US_HPI_future']))
- # housing_pct['ma_apply_example'] = housing_pct['M30'].rolling(window=10).apply(moving_average)
- # print(housing_pct.tail())
- X = np.array(housing_pct.drop(['label', 'US_HPI_future'], 1))
- y = np.array(housing_pct['label'])
- X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X,y, test_size=0.25)
- tpot = TPOTClassifier(generations=10, population_size=20, verbosity=2)
- tpot.fit(X_train, y_train)
- print(tpot.score(X_test, y_test))
- tpot.export('HPI_tpot_pipeline.py')
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