{
"cells": [
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 1,
"metadata": {
"block_hidden": true
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"outputs": [],
"source": [
"%load_ext rpy2.ipython\n",
"%matplotlib inline\n",
"import logging\n",
"logging.getLogger('fbprophet').setLevel(logging.ERROR)\n",
"import warnings\n",
"warnings.filterwarnings(\"ignore\")"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"## Python API\n",
"\n",
"Prophet follows the `sklearn` model API. We create an instance of the `Prophet` class and then call its `fit` and `predict` methods. "
]
},
{
"cell_type": "markdown",
"metadata": {},
"source": [
"The input to Prophet is always a dataframe with two columns: `ds` and `y`. The `ds` (datestamp) column should be of a format expected by Pandas, ideally YYYY-MM-DD for a date or YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS for a timestamp. The `y` column must be numeric, and represents the measurement we wish to forecast.\n",
"\n",
"As an example, let's look at a time series of daily page views for the Wikipedia page for [Peyton Manning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peyton_Manning). We scraped this data using the [Wikipediatrend](https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/wikipediatrend/vignettes/using-wikipediatrend.html) package in R. Peyton Manning provides a nice example because it illustrates some of Prophet's features, like multiple seasonality, changing growth rates, and the ability to model special days (such as Manning's playoff and superbowl appearances). The CSV is available [here](https://github.com/facebook/prophet/blob/master/examples/example_wp_peyton_manning.csv).\n",
"\n",
"First we'll import the data and log-transform the y variable."
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 2,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [],
"source": [
"import pandas as pd\n",
"import numpy as np\n",
"from fbprophet import Prophet"
]
},
{
"cell_type": "code",
"execution_count": 3,
"metadata": {},
"outputs": [
{
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" | \n",
" ds | \n",
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\n",
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\n",
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" 2007-12-12 | \n",
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" 2007-12-13 | \n",
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" 2007-12-14 | \n",
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" 2017-01-15 | \n",
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" 2017-01-16 | \n",
" 8.531766 | \n",
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\n",
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" 2017-01-17 | \n",
" 8.319156 | \n",
" 7.601640 | \n",
" 9.077195 | \n",
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\n",
" \n",
" | 3268 | \n",
" 2017-01-18 | \n",
" 8.151772 | \n",
" 7.436613 | \n",
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